UDIA Victoria, in partnership with RPM Real Estate, has released the latest quarterly URBAN IQ research publication.
The research provides data, research and analysis to help our members understand the conditions in which we are operating.
Read the full URBAN IQ report, September 2021 quarter, in English
Read the full URBAN IQ report, September 2021 quarter, in Mandarin
Summary of Key Findings
September Quarter 2021
While economic activity continued to improve in other states following a brief COVID-19 recovery, this will not be sufficient to avoid national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contraction, with GDP projected to fall by 1% to 3%.
Dwelling investment is also expected to decline during September quarter 2021. Lockdowns have impacted the volume of turnover activity in established property markets.
Retail trade illustrates the impact restrictions have had on private consumption, the largest segment of GDP. Turnover in dollar terms over the quarter compared with the previous was down 13.9% in ACT, 11.6% in NSW, and 4.5% in Victoria, with all other states recording marginal to moderate growth.
The Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.76% across September quarter 2021, and jumped 3.01% from the same quarter in 2020.
Victoria recorded 18,908 dwelling approvals in June quarter 2020, equating to a 27.0% increase on dwelling approvals in the same quarter in 2020. This led to total approvals during the twelve months to June 2021 of 67,680 dwellings being 12.8% above the corresponding figure twelve months to June 2020.
The 13,743 new detached house approvals in June quarter 2021 is a new record, escalating by 12.8% from the previous quarter’s long term high, and represented a sizeable 42.5% increase on house approvals in the same quarter in 2020.
Victoria recorded 1,657 approvals of flats/units/apartments in buildings of 4 storeys of higher in March quarter 2021, which was a contraction of 18.1% from the previous quarter and 61.3% on the same quarter in 2020.
Residential market activity
Over September quarter 2021, sales recorded:
- A preliminary median house price of $1,072,500 (+6.0% change from the previous quarter).
- A unit price of $680,500 (+0.4% from the previous quarter, +9.1% from the corresponding quarter a year earlier).
- A median land price of $326,000 (+2.5% change from the previous quarter, and +6.7% from the corresponding quarter a year earlier).
Overall, there were 6,445 auctions held during September quarter 2021, with a clearance rate of almost 90%.
The number of new owner occupier loans in Victoria decreased by 13.2% to 32,325 loan approvals in September quarter 2021, down from June quarter.
After recording long term highs in new loan commitments last quarter, loans for newly erected dwellings (-14.3%) and established dwellings (-9.6%) both fell this period.
The Urban IQ Property Market reports are produced for UDIA Victoria by RPM Real Estate Group.
The reports provide a quarterly update on the Victorian residential market including economic activity, prices, finance, building, sentiment and affordability metrics.